Model Likes Mississippi State And Oregon This Weekend
A computer simulation running 10,000 iterations points to two specific matchups for Week 9 college football coverage.
By Anthony Lawson ·
If you are looking at the Week 9 college football board, a computer model is pointing you toward Mississippi State covering against Texas and Oregon covering at home against Northwestern. Ohio State opens the first Big Ten meeting with USC as 6.5-point favorites in their 25th overall matchup. Georgia carries an 11.5-point line against Florida, with both teams returning from bye weeks.
The model behind these projections simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It entered Week 9 on a 68-59 run on its top-rated picks at betting sites, returning nearly $400 to a player betting $100 per game.
For Mississippi State at Texas, the model has the Bulldogs covering a 21-point spread in more than 70% of simulations, with a 50.5 point total. Texas has covered just once in its last six games. Arch Manning threw three interceptions in his last outing and now has nine for the season, tied for second most in the nation. Since Manning took over as starter last year, Texas is 3-9-1 against the spread following a win, while Mississippi State is 9-4 against the spread in its last 13 road games. The Bulldogs took Texas to overtime when the two met last year.
The model also has Oregon covering a 3.5-point spread at home against No. 20 Northwestern nearly 60% of the time, with a 47.5 point total. Northwestern has lost by double digits in each of its last three trips to the West Coast, and Oregon beat the Wildcats by 20 points last year. Northwestern's FBS wins this season have come against teams with a combined 12-25 record. The Wildcats gave up 244 rushing yards last week, while Oregon's Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill are projected for over 160 combined scrimmage yards. Oregon's defense ranks top 10 nationally in interceptions. The model projects the Under hits in well over 50% of simulations.
The rest of the Week 9 card includes No. 1 Miami at North Carolina, where Bill Belichick faces a top-ranked team for the first time, with North Carolina getting 14.5 points. No. 6 Utah is a 6.5-point favorite at Cincinnati, and No. 7 UCLA is favored by 22.5 over Nevada. Georgia meets Florida for the 100th-plus time in a series the Bulldogs have won the last five times.
Games run from Tuesday, Oct. 27 through Saturday, Oct. 31. The full schedule includes Delaware at Western Kentucky, Sam Houston at Missouri State, Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee, Jacksonville State at New Mexico State, FAU at North Texas, Troy at James Madison, Tulane at Charlotte, Baylor at UCF, Kent State at Sacramento State, Arizona at Texas Tech, Notre Dame at Navy, Auburn at Ole Miss, Florida at Georgia, Utah at Cincinnati, South Carolina at Oklahoma, Miami at North Carolina, Mississippi State at Texas, and Ohio State at USC.
