70 House Races See Six-Figure Ad Spending As Democrats Push For Control
AdImpact data reveals heavy investment in key districts, from deep red seats in the South to swing states, as the final week of the 2026 midterms unfolds.
By Anthony Lawson ·
The fight for the U.S. House of Representatives has narrowed to a specific set of battlegrounds where money is moving fast. In the final week before the November 3 election, both parties are pouring six-figure sums into 70 distinct districts. This spending pattern suggests the race is no longer about whether Democrats can win, but by how much they might expand their majority.
NPR analysis of AdImpact data shows that more than $10 million each is being spent in toss-up districts in Michigan, North Carolina, New York, and Florida. The spending is not limited to swing states. Seven-figure ad buys are appearing in deep red communities across Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. These districts often feature boundaries drawn by Republicans in recent redistricting efforts, a move that some strategists fear could backfire by packing conservative voters into districts held by Democrats.
The Cook Political Report currently rates Democrats as favored in 220 seats. It lists 17 races as toss-ups and another 30 as leaning Republican but potentially competitive. This stands in contrast to the current Republican seat count of 218 to 214. A recent NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll found that Democrats hold a 10-point advantage among registered voters and an 8-point lead with likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. These numbers indicate that many more seats are mathematically reachable than the current party lineup suggests.
Certain seats are drawing the heaviest firepower. Michigan's 7th District and North Carolina's 1st District each have over $12 million in planned spending. Other high-cost races include Florida's 14th, 22nd, and 25th Districts, New York's 17th District, and Iowa's 2nd and 3rd Districts. These areas either currently favor Democrats or are classified as toss-ups. The average of these 70 high-spending districts voted for Donald Trump by 9 points in the 2024 election, a margin that has become a key metric for targeting final-week messaging.
Voter sentiment plays a central role in these calculations. Cost of living remains the top concern for Americans, driven by rising gas prices, tariffs, and the ongoing war in Iran. A record number of congressional retirements has also shifted the dynamic, amplifying anti-incumbency streaks seen in primary elections. Redistricting after a Supreme Court decision further complicated the map, with Republicans adjusting lines to add conservative voters to districts held by representatives such as Marcy Kaptur in Ohio and Don Davis in North Carolina.
Democrats engaged in similar maneuvers in California, adjusting boundaries for districts held by Republicans James Gallagher, David Valadao, Ken Calvert, Darrell Issa, and independent Kevin Kiley. Despite these changes, only Shomari Figures in Alabama and Darren Soto in Florida occupy districts that currently favor Republicans according to ratings groups. Other key races include Kentucky's 6th and Arkansas' 2nd Districts, where voters backed Trump by more than 10 points in 2024.
Not every district receiving attention will change hands. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee identifies several districts as in play, yet some of those areas gave Trump nearly 60% of the vote in 2024 and have seen little to no ad spending from either side. The 60 districts listed as priorities by both the Democratic and Republican House campaign arms reflect the administration's current unpopularity. As early voting concludes, the final days will determine how many of these 70 heavily advertised seats actually flip.
