Breaking: Warm October and 70,000 Megawatts of Outages Trigger First-Ever Capacity Advisory

The U.S. Department of Energy declared a power grid emergency across 13 states and the District of Columbia on Sunday, October 12, 2026. Energy Secretary Chris Wright issued the order under section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, granting PJM Interconnection temporary emergency authority to keep the regional grid stable from October 13 through October 16. This federal intervention was a direct response to a specific convergence of factors that left the system with very little margin for error. The primary driver was unusually warm October weather that collided with the fall shoulder season, a period when generator and transmission owners take equipment offline for maintenance and upgrades ahead of winter.

The strain on the grid was quantified by a load forecast of approximately 111,500 megawatts or higher. This demand level sat against previously scheduled generation outages of about 70,000 megawatts plus planned transmission outages. Most scheduled outages are prohibited in summer, and the summer peak period had ended in mid-September. Paul Dajewski, PJM's senior manager for dispatch, noted that this volume of outages is typical for the shoulder season. However, the warm weather pushed demand into a range that made these standard maintenance windows problematic. The result was a tight supply position that required immediate action to prevent interruptions.

In response to these projected conditions, PJM issued a Capacity Advisory for Monday, October 12, and Tuesday, October 13. This marked the first ever use of that procedure, which PJM members endorsed in June 2026 for circumstances when projected conditions indicate an approaching capacity shortfall. The advisory was followed by a Maximum Generation Alert and a Load Management Alert for October 13. These alerts signaled to transmission and generation owners that conditions would be tight, prompting them to defer or cancel equipment maintenance and testing. The alerts also informed neighboring grid operators that exports from PJM might be curtailed to preserve local stability.

The Department of Energy order allowed PJM to call on generators to run in excess of their operating permits as needed. It also authorized PJM to direct data centers and other large electricity users onto their backup generation if necessary. Federal officials stated that PJM wanted to deploy auxiliary, standby, directly connected, battery storage, or other generation resources at data centers, including hyperscaler facilities, and at other large industrial and commercial customer sites. This use of federal emergency powers was designed to ensure that supply could meet demand without resorting to scheduled blackouts. No mandatory conservation orders were issued for households, and daily electricity use stayed normal for most consumers.

A significant portion of the new demand driving these tight conditions comes from data centers and other energy-intensive large-load customers. PJM notes that the shoulder-season reprieve is not what it used to be because consumption from these facilities does not fall with the weather. It is a 12-month, 24/7 phenomenon. This expanding demand is outpacing new transmission and electricity supply coming onto the system. Unseasonably hot or cold weather now arrives outside the traditional peak seasons, creating new vulnerabilities in a grid that was historically designed with different seasonal patterns in mind. The strain was particularly visible in congested zones in Washington D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, where transmission limits bottled up generation resources.

PJM had previously used Department of Energy emergency orders during two unseasonably warm September periods, specifically from August 31 to September 4 and September 15 to 18. Those earlier orders allowed eligible resources to keep operating beyond normal limits and involved the deployment of Demand Response programs. After sunset on those days, PJM had to cover net load as solar output fell faster than electricity use. The October emergency continued this pattern of using federal authority to manage the gap between supply and demand during periods of high thermal load. The focus remained on proactive management to maintain reliability without disrupting service for the 67 million people in the region.

According to PJM's Winter Outlook released on November 5, 2026, the organization expects sufficient resources to reliably meet demand this winter under expected conditions. However, reserve margins continue to tighten as demand outpaces new supply. PJM expects 182,426 megawatts of operational capacity to serve a forecast winter peak of approximately 147,500 megawatts, plus about 3,200 megawatts of average exports to neighboring systems. That peak would set a new winter record if reached. Reliable winter operations will depend on strong generator performance during extreme cold, especially where transmission constraints limit deliveries in the BGE, Pepco, and Dominion zones. Michael Bryson, PJM's senior vice president of operations, stated that the goal is to coordinate operations with owners and proactively manage the system to perform at high levels when consumers need energy the most.