Likud Split Over Election Odds
Party insiders clash over internal polling and rival turnout spending as Israel votes on Tuesday.
By Carlos Rousseau ·
Likud leadership is divided on the party's chances of winning the election scheduled for Tuesday, October 27.
One day before Israeli voters head to the polls, internal disagreements have emerged over the likelihood of a victory for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Party members cite conflicting signals from internal data and on-the-ground reports.
Optimists within the party rely on forecasts from Shlomo Filber, who manages Likud’s internal polls. A Likud source described the internal mood as polarized. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the source said. The source added that the outcome hinged on Filber's data, stating, "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It’s one or the other."
The main concern for the skeptical faction involves financial outlays by outside groups. Party sources claim nonprofits are spending large sums to boost voter turnout in the camp opposing Netanyahu. These efforts included social media campaigns, street signs, field events, and transportation for Arab voters and Israelis abroad. A Likud source labeled the activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing it provides an extensive support network that bypasses standard party financing rules.
Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for focusing on campaign video limits while ignoring the activity of these organizations. However, party sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts or proof that the activity violated the law.
The party is preparing a large-scale field operation for Election Day. The strategy focuses on preventing right-wing votes from shifting to smaller parties. Negotiations to have Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, a former Givati Brigade commander and head of the People of Israel party, withdraw from the race failed. Rabbi Eli Sadan, who participated in those talks, later issued a statement backing Winter.
Likud is also courting supporters of the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. Meanwhile, Rabbi Abergel’s Ahi party has dropped out of the race following talks with Likud. Those discussions included the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister. A survey published days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.
